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Emerging#48 of 115 by 1M spread

Semiconductors vs the S&P 500 (SMH): is it outperforming?

Over the past month, SMH has outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.6 points. Here is where that puts it in the sector rotation — updated daily.

1M spread vs SPY
+0.6 pts
Quadrant
Emerging
Momentum
Weakening
RS health
Broken
Holdings P/E
51.8×

Where SMH sits on the rotation map

Semiconductors highlighted against the 11 broad S&P 500 sectors. Vertical: 1-month spread vs the S&P 500. Horizontal: the longer, time-shifted window — the methodology explains the math.

SMH vs SPY: head-to-head returns

SMH (semiconductors) and SPY (the S&P 500) side by side over every window Zensei tracks. The spread is the difference — positive means SMH won that window.

Window
SMH
SPY
Spread
1 week−1.3%+0.5%−1.8 pts
2 weeks−6.1%−1.1%−5.0 pts
1 month+4.4%+3.8%+0.6 pts
3 months−7.7%+2.0%−9.6 pts
6 months+36.1%+12.7%+23.4 pts
1 year+85.6%+19.9%+65.8 pts

Data as of 2026-08-28 · computed from daily adjusted closes · how we measure

The read

Semiconductors (SMH) has just turned the corner. Over the longer, time-shifted window it trailed the S&P 500 by 9.8 points, but over the past month it has moved narrowly ahead of the market — a 0.6-point edge that puts it in the Emerging quadrant. Ranked by one-month spread, it currently stands #48 of the 115 groups Zensei tracks.

On the shorter tape, SMH's momentum is weakening: the intraday trend that carried the move is cooling across the shorter windows. SMH's relative-strength line has broken below its long-term average — the long-term outperformance trend is no longer intact. Both signals point the same direction here: the market is not rewarding this group on either horizon.

The exposure comes via VanEck Semiconductor ETF, whose 25 tracked holdings are led by NVIDIA CORP, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD ADR and BROADCOM INC. Weighted by portfolio, the fund's holdings trade at roughly 51.8× earnings and 15.8× sales. The thing to watch from here is confirmation: emerging groups that hold a positive one-month spread long enough for the longer window to turn are the classic early-rotation entries — the ones that fail fall back quickly.

What's inside SMH

Top 5 of 25 tracked holdings, by portfolio weight.

Holding
Weight
1M
NVDANVIDIA CORP
22.1%+10.4%
TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD ADR
9.4%+6.4%
AVGOBROADCOM INC
6.5%−3.2%
AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
5.3%+2.4%
ASMLASML HOLDING NV ADR
5.1%+7.2%
20 more holdings — each measured against the sector, with momentum and relative strengthUnlock with Premium

Semiconductors vs the market — common questions

Is semiconductors outperforming the S&P 500?

Right now, yes: over the past month SMH has outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.6 points. This page updates daily, so the answer reflects current market data rather than a dated article.

What is SMH?

SMH is VanEck Semiconductor ETF, the fund Zensei uses to measure the semiconductors group against the S&P 500 benchmark (SPY).

Which stocks are in SMH?

SMH's largest tracked positions are NVIDIA CORP, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD ADR, BROADCOM INC, ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC, ASML HOLDING NV ADR — 25 holdings in total. The full list, with each stock measured against the group, is part of Zensei Premium.

What quadrant is semiconductors in right now?

As of the latest daily data, semiconductors is in the Emerging quadrant — behind the market over the longer window, but ahead over the past month. The quadrant rules are documented on the Zensei methodology page.

Related sectors

Track semiconductors against the whole market

Zensei Edge maps 100+ sectors and themes against the S&P 500 — with the stocks inside each one, rotation history and alerts when leadership changes hands.