20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the S&P 500 (TLT): is it outperforming?
Over the past month, TLT has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5.1 points. Here is where that puts it in the market rotation — updated daily.
Where TLT sits on the rotation map
20+ Year Treasury Bond highlighted against the 11 broad S&P 500 sectors. Vertical: 1-month spread vs the S&P 500. Horizontal: the longer, time-shifted window — the methodology explains the math.
TLT vs SPY: head-to-head returns
TLT (20+ year treasury bond) and SPY (the S&P 500) side by side over every window Zensei tracks. The spread is the difference — positive means TLT won that window.
Data as of 2026-08-28 · computed from daily adjusted closes · how we measure
The read
20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is losing its lead. It built a 0.8-point advantage over the S&P 500 across the longer, time-shifted window, but over the past month it has slipped 5.1 points behind the market — the Cooling quadrant of the rotation map. Ranked by one-month spread, it currently stands #91 of the 115 groups Zensei tracks.
On the shorter tape, TLT's momentum is weakening: the intraday trend that carried the move is cooling across the shorter windows. TLT's relative-strength line has broken below its long-term average — the long-term outperformance trend is no longer intact. Both signals point the same direction here: the market is not rewarding this group on either horizon.
The thing to watch from here is whether this is a pause or a handoff: cooling groups sometimes reset and reclaim leadership, but a deepening one-month deficit usually means rotation has moved on.
20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the market — common questions
Is 20+ year treasury bond outperforming the S&P 500?
Right now, no: over the past month TLT has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5.1 points. This page updates daily, so the answer reflects current market data rather than a dated article.
What is TLT?
TLT is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, the fund Zensei uses to measure the 20+ year treasury bond group against the S&P 500 benchmark (SPY).
What quadrant is 20+ year treasury bond in right now?
As of the latest daily data, 20+ year treasury bond is in the Cooling quadrant — still ahead over the longer window, but behind the market over the past month. The quadrant rules are documented on the Zensei methodology page.
Related sectors
Track 20+ year treasury bond against the whole market
Zensei Edge maps 100+ sectors and themes against the S&P 500 — with the stocks inside each one, rotation history and alerts when leadership changes hands.